Newspapers


Two key features are of note:

  1. The average price is clearly lower at Henry Hub
  2. The amount of variation at Henry Hub is considerably larger than at Tianjin in spite of the fact that the average is lower.

Experts


Almost everything that we wish to know can be discerned from this.

  1. Because we can see 100 on the y-axis, we can get a sense of the missing responses; there are far more for Tianjin than Henry Hub.
  2. Experts clearly favor Henry Hub; the split in Build/No is nearly even for Tianjin but overwhelmingly favors Build for Henry Hub.

Forecast


Two things are of note:
1. The data are paired by period; that is the point of the calibration exercise.
2. Henry Hub is almost always forecast higher than Tianjin.